tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 3525 at 08:46, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3525 Republic IAD 08:46 SDF 10:40 5% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 3980 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 12:48 SDF 14:37 18% 6% 0.4% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 29m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 21m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 91% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 6h 19m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 5h 10m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 1h 24m Houston IAH 16:35 → SDF 20:01UA 4050 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 20:54 → SDF 22:19DL 2842 6h 34m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 3h 59m Newark EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25UA 3415 · flown by Republic 7h 50m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SDF 21:48AA 2212 6h 33m 68% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON