tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 8284 United IAD 18:11 SMF 21:01 25% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 9h 09m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 9h 56m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 10h 14m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:36 → LAX 15:08UA 1689 3h 50m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → SMF 20:37UA 2075 11h 01m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 7h 57m 96% 68%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 3h 00m Seattle SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772 10h 38m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 50m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 71% 52%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737 47m Seattle SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722 8h 36m 48% 32%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 7h 57m 54% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON