tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2319 United IAD 17:42 SNA 20:19 18% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 11h 15m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524 1h 35m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 8h 40m 95% 74%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 2h 18m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 10h 52m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:58 → SEA 12:24AS 375 2h 35m Seattle SEA 14:59 → SNA 17:43AS 374 10h 45m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 7h 43m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 1h 07m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 44m 73% 47%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 7h 20m 46% 31%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 55m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 37m 42% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON