Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4425 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 09:00	STL 10:27	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4527 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:55	STL 19:26	27%	16%	1.1%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289	5h 42m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868	4h 31m	92%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	3h 58m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	7h 14m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 15m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	4h 50m	95%	80%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 12:55 → STL 14:23UA 4581 · flown by GoJet	7h 08m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 45m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125	4h 29m	51%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON