Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 3425 at 22:25, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3425 IAD 22:25 → SYR 00:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3425 Republic	IAD 22:25	SYR 00:08	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 4499 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:35	SYR 14:04	6%	0%	11.1%	94%
UA 4370 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:29	SYR 09:55	14%	3%	3.2%	86%
UA 4360 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:45	SYR 14:15	18%	9%	2.6%	82%
UA 4856 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:25	SYR 23:59	21%	4%	6.7%	79%
UA 4977 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:25	SYR 19:04	23%	13%	3.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON