Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5230 IAH 16:41 → ABQ 18:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1381 IAH 20:25 → ABQ 21:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5230 SkyWest	IAH 16:41	ABQ 18:17	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1381 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ABQ 21:44	28%	7%	0.7%	74%
UA 3982 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 10:00	ABQ 11:25	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 6345 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:04	ABQ 13:27	12%	3%	1.3%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON