tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 17:40, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 8960 Delta IAH 11:32 ANC 15:52 23% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 17:40 → MSP 20:32DL 2617 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 19m 84% 68%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 06:06 → SEA 08:27AS 241 3h 24m Seattle SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333 11h 28m 98% 67%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 3h 40m Seattle SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711 11h 55m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399 11h 56m 87% 62%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 15m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 10h 27m 97% 57%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:44 → ORD 12:38UA 2124 3h 24m Chicago ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461 12h 21m 98% 52%
AmericanDetails → IAH 11:00 → ORD 13:42AA 2504 3h 21m Chicago ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375 13h 09m 100% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50AS 1421 49m Portland PDX 21:39 → ANC 00:35 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 9h 16m 51% 38%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 46m Seattle SEA 18:07 → ANC 20:41AS 1408 9h 03m 51% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON