tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2378 at 18:46, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2378 United IAH 18:46 BDL 23:19 32% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 5h 43m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643 9h 22m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → BDL 12:48DL 1082 6h 08m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 8h 16m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 1h 58m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 7h 14m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → BDL 13:33AA 2741 6h 32m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 18:58DL 1307 2h 32m Detroit DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989 6h 54m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 18m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:44 → BDL 17:16AA 1367 6h 03m 70% 44%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:59 → CLT 18:31AA 1478 56m Charlotte CLT 19:27 → BDL 21:30AA 3280 5h 31m 66% 44%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 17m 31% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON