tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946 7h 03m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741 7h 29m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 31m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 01m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:11 → BZN 11:28AA 952 7h 26m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 1h 25m Chicago ORD 10:32 → BZN 12:56AA 1080 7h 43m 92% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → BZN 15:20AA 947 6h 07m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:38 → DEN 18:35UA 470 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 5h 36m 52% 34%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 40% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON