Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 408 SkyWest	IAH 20:06	CHA 23:11	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 12:50	CHA 16:03	27%	11%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet	7h 12m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	5h 42m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 02m	99%	77%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont	5h 53m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → CHA 17:41DL 3124	7h 00m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → CHA 14:14DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	7h 44m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:12DL 1366	6h 34m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33DL 1417	2h 12m New York	LGA 13:45 → CHA 16:04DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	8h 06m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:31 → CHA 15:48AA 2037	4h 35m	71%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON