tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 8200 at 18:36, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 8200 United IAH 18:36 CHS 22:10 33% 11% 1.0% no record
UA 6295 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:15 CHS 16:02 20% 6% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 44m Dulles IAD 13:12 → CHS 15:10UA 1952 6h 50m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 20m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003 8h 59m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 28m Minneapolis MSP 12:41 → CHS 16:25DL 2463 8h 55m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 42m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 12m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → CHS 14:25AA 5222 · flown by PSA 7h 24m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 13:50UA 2631 7h 46m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:56DL 1651 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 4h 33m 71% 56%
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:54 → DFW 10:07AA 3598 · flown by Envoy 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:03 → CHS 14:40AA 2166 4h 46m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON