Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2011 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2011 IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1813 IAH 17:24 → CLT 20:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 06:01	CLT 09:43	10%	6%	2.2%	91%
AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 08:54	CLT 12:30	15%	7%	0.9%	84%
AA 445 American	IAH 10:06	CLT 13:38	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2396 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 07:21	CLT 10:58	23%	8%	1.4%	81%
AA 1478 American Flight history →	IAH 14:59	CLT 18:31	26%	8%	0.8%	81%
AA 1813 American	IAH 17:24	CLT 20:55	31%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 3988 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	CLT 11:02	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 6197 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	CLT 16:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON