Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5459 at 20:06, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5459 IAH 20:06 → COS 21:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5459 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:06	COS 21:37	15%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 6122 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:56	COS 11:25	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
UA 6126 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 19:52	COS 21:29	17%	7%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON