Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 512 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 512 IAH 07:44 → DCA 11:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5589 IAH 17:22 → DCA 21:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:44	DCA 11:40	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
YV 4031 Mesa	IAH 09:43	DCA 14:00	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	24%	7%	0.9%	75%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:30	DCA 14:32	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	28%	9%	1.0%	69%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	29%	7%	1.0%	70%
UA 235 United	IAH 17:03	DCA 21:24	30%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 8150 United	IAH 18:13	DCA 22:33	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 17:22	DCA 21:24	34%	12%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON