Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1874 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1874 IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 470 IAH 16:38 → DEN 18:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1874 United Flight history →	IAH 05:15	DEN 06:47	8%	4%	1.8%	96%
UA 2415 United	IAH 06:15	DEN 07:40	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1575 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	DEN 08:52	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 1450 United Flight history →	IAH 09:32	DEN 11:08	18%	5%	0.7%	85%
F9 3229 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:30	DEN 08:14	19%	5%	1.1%	88%
UA 685 United	IAH 22:09	DEN 23:34	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	DEN 14:17	21%	7%	0.7%	86%
UA 2787 United	IAH 10:30	DEN 11:54	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 3205 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:09	DEN 23:58	25%	7%	0.9%	80%
UA 2767 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	DEN 16:43	29%	10%	0.7%	75%
F9 3227 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:23	DEN 11:58	30%	8%	0.8%	65%
UA 1654 United Flight history →	IAH 18:19	DEN 20:14	33%	10%	0.8%	66%
UA 470 United Flight history →	IAH 16:38	DEN 18:35	36%	12%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON