Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1780 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	DSM 22:35	31%	10%	0.8%	77%
UA 6166 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	DSM 14:10	16%	5%	1.4%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 54m	99%	88%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 54m Denver	DEN 09:41 → DSM 12:30UA 596	7h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	8h 11m	99%	78%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:59 → DSM 10:18UA 466	5h 14m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:05DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	7h 35m	98%	75%
United Details →	IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450	2h 22m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	6h 43m	95%	73%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → DSM 14:07UA 1658	7h 57m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	7h 51m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 15:20 → DTW 18:58DL 1307	47m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → DSM 20:41DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	5h 21m	66%	42%
United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	55m Denver	DEN 21:09 → DSM 00:05 +1UA 1213	5h 46m	64%	40%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	57m Denver	DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549	5h 30m	67%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON