Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 5354 at 20:35, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5354 IAH 20:35 → ECP 22:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5354 SkyWest	IAH 20:35	ECP 22:41	15%	11%	1.6%	no record
UA 4225 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:09	ECP 11:02	20%	6%	0.9%	80%
UA 4043 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:05	ECP 20:01	22%	4%	0.0%	78%
UA 4902 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:30	ECP 16:23	23%	11%	0.9%	77%
UA 4343 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:01	ECP 21:58	24%	10%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON