tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 5716 at 18:16, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5716 SkyWest IAH 18:16 GRR 21:58 31% 11% 3.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 3h 58m Detroit DTW 13:16 → GRR 14:16DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 7h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → GRR 15:19DL 1245 7h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 11m Denver DEN 09:58 → GRR 14:35UA 2637 8h 20m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 38m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 46m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → EWR 10:33UA 1797 3h 19m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 9h 03m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44DL 2547 5h 04m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33DL 1417 3h 35m New York LGA 15:08 → GRR 17:09DL 5104 · flown by Endeavor 9h 09m 99% 79%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229 2h 28m Denver DEN 10:42 → GRR 15:21F9 1248 7h 51m 95% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:45 → EWR 18:29UA 1397 1h 01m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 65% 47%
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:03 → GRR 16:32AA 310 5h 19m 70% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON