tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 05:58, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 253 United Flight history → IAH 10:10 HNL 13:26 29% 9% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:32UA 417 1h 33m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 10h 55m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:09 → MSP 08:53DL 1050 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 34m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 50m Chicago ORD 09:49 → HNL 13:42UA 219 13h 38m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 37m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 40m 91% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 53m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 12h 58m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 1h 43m Los Angeles LAX 13:13 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 11h 24m 95% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON