Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1687 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1687 IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 465 IAH 19:59 → IND 23:26 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1687 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	IND 15:25	13%	8%	0.7%	87%
UA 465 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	IND 23:26	27%	10%	0.7%	73%
UA 6162 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	IND 10:54	7%	1%	0.4%	93%
UA 6132 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:35	IND 20:03	25%	8%	0.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON