tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 18m Denver DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:46UA 5730 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 40m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 26m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:31UA 417 3h 00m Los Angeles LAX 10:31 → JAC 14:03UA 1041 9h 05m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 47m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 6h 53m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 8h 55m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 13:35 → JAC 16:58UA 1593 9h 38m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:15 → JAC 11:17AA 1923 7h 15m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:13 → DFW 11:29AA 1407 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883 5h 46m 72% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON