Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2293 at 20:00, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2293 IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2293 United Flight history →	IAH 20:00	JAX 23:20	29%	8%	0.8%	76%
UA 6146 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:35	JAX 10:56	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
UA 4048 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	JAX 15:37	17%	6%	0.0%	83%
UA 4035 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:15	JAX 21:41	22%	0%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON