Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:53	JFK 16:33	32%	11%	1.0%	50%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	49%	16%	1.2%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 30m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 29m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	56m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 28m	89%	78%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 20m	99%	73%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766	7h 32m	94%	70%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → JFK 13:22AA 374	6h 21m	95%	69%
American Details →	IAH 08:54 → DFW 10:07AA 3598 · flown by Envoy	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:47AA 1058	7h 53m	94%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	51m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	5h 51m	70%	51%
JetBlue Details →	IAH 10:58 → BOS 15:45B6 932	1h 10m Boston	BOS 16:55 → JFK 18:15B6 317	6h 17m	71%	45%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:34 → ATL 21:54DL 1223	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	5h 17m	54%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON