Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1264 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1264 IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1965 IAH 17:48 → LAS 19:11 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1264 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAS 08:35	12%	4%	0.7%	95%
F9 1489 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 05:14	LAS 06:37	17%	8%	2.2%	82%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	20%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	21%	6%	0.7%	88%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	25%	8%	0.6%	85%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	LAS 17:48	30%	8%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
UA 2406 United Flight history →	IAH 18:39	LAS 19:57	31%	9%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
F9 4131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:53	LAS 16:16	33%	12%	1.0%	74%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	LAS 21:23	36%	10%	0.6%	66%
F9 1965 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:48	LAS 19:11	41%	13%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON