Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 417 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1755 IAH 22:19 → LAX 23:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:58	LAX 07:31	13%	5%	1.9%	97%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	13%	5%	0.7%	91%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	15%	6%	0.7%	94%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	19%	6%	0.7%	89%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	LAX 16:44	20%	6%	0.7%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	21%	6%	0.7%	87%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	24%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 22:02	LAX 23:43	27%	7%	0.7%	82%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 21:18	LAX 22:46	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:37	LAX 20:09	31%	9%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	31%	9%	0.7%	73%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:19	LAX 23:57	33%	8%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON