Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1417 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1417 IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2682 IAH 18:30 → LGA 22:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	15%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	15%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 1143 United	IAH 08:00	LGA 12:31	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 10:53	LGA 15:21	27%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	LGA 14:29	30%	9%	0.8%	77%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	31%	10%	0.7%	66%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:39	LGA 23:07	34%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:01	LGA 18:28	35%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:23	LGA 22:14	35%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	37%	12%	0.7%	61%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:44	LGA 19:36	39%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:30	LGA 22:58	40%	11%	0.7%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON