Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	92%	76%
Alaska Details →	IAH 06:06 → SEA 08:27AS 241	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 11:23 → LGB 14:04AS 717	9h 58m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	55m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:57AS 1310	8h 19m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON