Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4513 IAH 12:22 → LIT 14:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4552 IAH 18:15 → LIT 19:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4513 GoJet	IAH 12:22	LIT 14:06	23%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 4371 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 09:44	LIT 11:14	24%	4%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
OO 5681 SkyWest	IAH 14:18	LIT 15:49	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
G7 4457 GoJet	IAH 20:00	LIT 21:29	27%	6%	1.2%	no record
G7 4552 GoJet	IAH 18:15	LIT 19:43	28%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON