Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2009 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2009 IAH 08:04 → MCI 10:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1589 IAH 20:12 → MCI 22:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2009 United	IAH 08:04	MCI 10:23	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
OO 5277 SkyWest	IAH 12:12	MCI 14:22	20%	7%	2.5%	no record
UA 1589 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	MCI 22:12	33%	9%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 6152 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	MCI 14:15	13%	4%	1.5%	87%
UA 3987 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	MCI 16:47	14%	5%	0.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON