Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2245 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2418 IAH 20:22 → MCO 23:53 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	10%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	20%	6%	0.8%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	26%	8%	1.4%	86%worse than usual
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	28%	9%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	30%	8%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	30%	9%	1.0%	80%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	34%	11%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
F9 2418 Frontier	IAH 20:22	MCO 23:53	35%	12%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON