Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5722 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 5722 IAH 07:18 → MEM 09:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1794 IAH 20:21 → MEM 22:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5722 SkyWest	IAH 07:18	MEM 09:01	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 565 SkyWest	IAH 12:15	MEM 13:58	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1794 United Flight history →	IAH 20:21	MEM 22:06	28%	10%	0.8%	74%
UA 6167 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:05	MEM 19:54	18%	6%	0.0%	82%
UA 6158 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:24	MEM 18:12	19%	5%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON