Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2144 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2144 IAH 05:24 → MIA 09:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1462 IAH 14:05 → MIA 17:46 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:24	MIA 09:03	16%	7%	4.1%	93%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:52	MIA 11:45	20%	8%	2.0%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	38%	10%	2.4%	84%worse than usual
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 10:54	MIA 14:37	39%	11%	3.1%	87%worse than usual
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	40%	12%	1.2%	78%worse than usual
MQ 3358 Envoy	IAH 17:51	MIA 21:30	42%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:43	MIA 20:23	44%	14%	1.3%	57%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:05	MIA 17:46	52%	17%	4.5%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON