Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 491 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 491 IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2140 IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 491 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	MSY 08:46	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 2385 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	MSY 13:14	20%	7%	0.7%	86%
UA 575 United Flight history →	IAH 09:34	MSY 10:49	20%	7%	0.7%	79%
UA 2738 United	IAH 15:02	MSY 16:33	21%	9%	0.9%	no record
OO 4786 SkyWest	IAH 21:45	MSY 23:09	22%	10%	1.8%	no record
YV 6284 Mesa	IAH 16:45	MSY 18:08	24%	9%	2.3%	no record
UA 2161 United	IAH 20:06	MSY 21:28	32%	12%	1.1%	no record
UA 2140 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	MSY 19:51	34%	13%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON