tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1563 United Flight history → IAH 20:31 ONT 21:55 31% 9% 0.7% 79%
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history → IAH 16:12 ONT 17:50 31% 9% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 41m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 27m 98% 79%
FrontierDetails → IAH 05:14 → LAS 06:37F9 1489 3h 19m Las Vegas LAS 09:56 → ONT 11:16F9 1283 8h 02m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → ONT 09:41AA 1820 6h 39m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → SFO 09:25UA 1768 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 6h 52m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 7h 50m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 9h 07m 97% 68%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 06:06 → SEA 08:27AS 241 2h 03m Seattle SEA 10:30 → ONT 13:10AS 571 9h 04m 96% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 11:53 → JFK 16:33B6 1382 1h 06m New York JFK 17:39 → ONT 20:37B6 355 10h 44m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON