tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925 7h 34m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101 7h 34m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 18:58DL 1307 2h 42m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 7h 12m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ORF 12:52AA 1323 5h 51m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 1h 49m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 6h 09m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 00m Chicago ORD 12:05 → ORF 15:19UA 2807 8h 09m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:14 → ORF 14:29AA 2282 7h 27m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 5h 45m 93% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 10:58 → BOS 15:45B6 932 1h 03m Boston BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:43B6 1813 6h 45m 68% 50%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371 54m Newark EWR 17:40 → ORF 19:21UA 4448 · flown by GoJet 6h 21m 63% 40%
AmericanDetails → IAH 16:43 → MIA 20:23AA 678 51m Miami MIA 21:14 → ORF 23:37AA 775 5h 54m 51% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON