Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2203 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2203 IAH 07:33 → PHL 11:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 836 IAH 14:18 → PHL 19:02 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2203 United Flight history →	IAH 07:33	PHL 11:50	9%	3%	0.8%	97%
AA 3196 American	IAH 06:54	PHL 11:24	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2427 American Flight history →	IAH 11:58	PHL 16:29	24%	8%	0.8%	81%
UA 1663 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:29	26%	10%	0.8%	75%
AA 2486 American	IAH 16:32	PHL 21:14	28%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 2748 United Flight history →	IAH 12:12	PHL 16:30	28%	7%	0.7%	55%
AA 836 American	IAH 14:18	PHL 19:02	29%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON