Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2614 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2614 IAH 08:12 → PHX 09:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 17:36 → PHX 18:39 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2614 United Flight history →	IAH 08:12	PHX 09:03	16%	6%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	22%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:13	PHX 15:03	24%	8%	0.7%	86%
MQ 4153 Envoy	IAH 17:51	PHX 18:42	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1478 United	IAH 16:47	PHX 17:40	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	28%	13%	0.8%	72%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:14	PHX 15:07	29%	9%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
UA 1259 United	IAH 18:25	PHX 19:18	30%	12%	0.8%	no record
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:36	PHX 18:39	38%	14%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON