tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 315 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 315 United Flight history → IAH 12:00 PIT 15:56 15% 6% 0.7% 85%
UA 2757 United IAH 18:13 PIT 22:17 26% 11% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 12m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 18m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 9h 01m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 35m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 8h 13m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 27m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 1h 44m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 6h 01m 92% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 26m Chicago ORD 10:25 → PIT 12:59UA 2752 6h 55m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 7h 22m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → PIT 14:19AA 2664 7h 17m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:56DL 1651 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 4h 57m 66% 57%
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:45 → EWR 18:29UA 1397 1h 00m Newark EWR 19:29 → PIT 21:06UA 3403 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 69% 52%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:16 → ORD 17:12AA 3322 1h 43m Chicago ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:31AA 1051 6h 15m 68% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON