tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4057 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:03 RIC 16:11 11% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 32m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 5h 41m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 16m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152 6h 12m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 45m Denver DEN 09:32 → RIC 14:56UA 724 8h 41m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886 3h 26m Newark EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08UA 3639 · flown by Republic 8h 48m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214 6h 45m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 18:58DL 1307 2h 42m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RIC 23:28DL 4679 · flown by Endeavor 7h 08m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 3h 24m Chicago ORD 14:25 → RIC 17:44UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 39m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371 59m Newark EWR 17:45 → RIC 19:25UA 4176 · flown by GoJet 6h 25m 68% 39%
AmericanDetails → IAH 16:43 → MIA 20:23AA 678 46m Miami MIA 21:09 → RIC 23:37AA 983 5h 54m 47% 28%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 5h 36m 39% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON