Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 25–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1911 IAH 20:01 → SAN 21:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SAN 10:51	25%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 2399 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	SAN 13:21	27%	10%	0.7%	83%
UA 1114 United	IAH 14:17	SAN 15:39	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2798 United	IAH 16:32	SAN 18:05	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1911 United Flight history →	IAH 20:01	SAN 21:43	33%	10%	0.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON