Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 241 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day AS 241 IAH 06:06 → SEA 08:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2341 IAH 20:16 → SEA 23:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 06:06	SEA 08:27	18%	5%	1.5%	85%
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	29%	7%	0.9%	77%
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	31%	8%	0.9%	72%
UA 2228 United	IAH 12:03	SEA 14:34	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	37%	10%	0.9%	67%
UA 2341 United	IAH 20:16	SEA 23:10	38%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	81%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON