Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1845 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1845 IAH 06:27 → SFO 08:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2607 IAH 18:13 → SFO 20:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1845 United	IAH 06:27	SFO 08:34	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	21%	6%	0.8%	89%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	25%	7%	0.7%	68%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	26%	10%	0.7%	80%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	26%	7%	0.7%	80%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	IAH 12:37	SFO 14:43	27%	7%	0.7%	78%
UA 1134 United	IAH 17:21	SFO 19:28	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	32%	10%	0.7%	73%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	32%	8%	0.7%	74%
UA 1202 United	IAH 19:46	SFO 22:06	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 2607 United	IAH 18:13	SFO 20:30	35%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	82%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON