tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 701 United Flight history → IAH 15:03 SJU 20:38 21% 5% 0.7% 91%worse than usual
UA 1192 United Flight history → IAH 10:03 SJU 15:42 26% 5% 0.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339 11h 23m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 9h 20m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 6h 52m 88% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 7h 49m 94% 67%
FrontierDetails → IAH 05:55 → ATL 09:09F9 1404 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:29 → SJU 16:17F9 2082 9h 22m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:24 → MIA 09:03AA 2144 2h 08m Miami MIA 11:11 → SJU 13:58AA 1613 7h 34m 92% 65%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:23 → SJU 15:18AA 702 8h 16m 93% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 51m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 6h 51m 70% 52%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 07:24 → FLL 10:47B6 2380 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453 6h 18m 74% 43%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 11:53 → JFK 16:33B6 1382 57m New York JFK 17:30 → SJU 21:40B6 803 8h 47m 66% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON