tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:09, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1148 United Flight history → IAH 20:20 SMF 22:28 31% 9% 0.7% 79%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:31UA 417 1h 58m Los Angeles LAX 09:29 → SMF 11:15UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 20m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 8h 16m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 39m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 47m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:37 → SFO 14:43UA 2611 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:23 → SMF 10:06AA 2081 7h 04m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743 50m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → SMF 20:37UA 2075 6h 06m 64% 45%
FrontierDetails → IAH 14:53 → LAS 16:16F9 4131 52m Las Vegas LAS 17:08 → SMF 18:54F9 4143 6h 01m 58% 36%
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654 53m Denver DEN 21:07 → SMF 22:43UA 1602 6h 24m 62% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON