Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 04m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	7h 22m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109	6h 32m	98%	75%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	8h 02m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	7h 14m	97%	71%
American Details →	IAH 16:43 → MIA 20:23AA 678	2h 31m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	90%	63%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:34 → ATL 21:54DL 1223	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	5h 11m	75%	59%
United Details →	IAH 13:45 → EWR 18:29UA 1397	1h 40m Newark	EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324	8h 30m	84%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	55m Atlanta	ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	4h 41m	74%	61%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:56DL 1651	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	4h 52m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON