Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2042 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2042 IAH 11:55 → STL 14:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1528 IAH 20:11 → STL 22:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2042 United	IAH 11:55	STL 14:01	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1528 United	IAH 20:11	STL 22:18	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 6214 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 08:00	STL 10:07	12%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 6160 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 15:31	STL 17:42	16%	7%	0.0%	84%
UA 6187 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:30	STL 22:45	23%	9%	1.4%	77%
UA 4573 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:28	STL 20:40	28%	17%	3.3%	72%
UA 6204 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:28	STL 20:42	29%	7%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON