Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5261 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 5261 IAH 07:40 → TUL 09:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1927 IAH 20:07 → TUL 21:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5261 SkyWest	IAH 07:40	TUL 09:31	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 5745 SkyWest	IAH 18:34	TUL 20:25	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1927 United	IAH 20:07	TUL 21:59	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 6171 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:30	TUL 18:08	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
UA 6179 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 21:42	TUL 23:15	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 4239 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	4%	1.8%	84%
UA 6269 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:14	TUL 21:52	19%	5%	0.0%	81%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	TUL 20:00	23%	8%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON