tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6211 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 14:45 TYS 18:07 15% 7% 0.0% 85%
UA 6206 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 19:50 TYS 23:12 27% 10% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 30m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 48m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 11m Denver DEN 11:03 → TYS 16:05UA 1241 7h 45m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:50 → TYS 14:27UA 6110 · flown by Mesa 6h 07m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 35m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544 5h 51m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13AA 5593 · flown by PSA 5h 11m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:54 → CLT 12:30AA 3162 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 5h 48m 90% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 16:43 → MIA 20:23AA 678 1h 22m Miami MIA 21:45 → TYS 23:59AA 2716 6h 16m 73% 47%
DeltaDetails → IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:56DL 1651 57m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 3h 59m 60% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON