Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2216 ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2128 ICT 18:32 → ATL 22:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2216 Delta Flight history →	ICT 05:43	ATL 08:54	6%	3%	1.0%	96%
DL 1637 Delta Flight history →	ICT 11:11	ATL 14:26	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 828 Delta	ICT 13:11	ATL 16:30	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2128 Delta Flight history →	ICT 18:32	ATL 22:00	15%	6%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON