Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3515 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3515 ICT 07:15 → DEN 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5630 ICT 18:42 → DEN 19:18 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3515 Southwest	ICT 07:15	DEN 07:48	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 06:08	DEN 06:53	10%	6%	0.9%	92%
OO 5813 SkyWest	ICT 11:39	DEN 12:15	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2082 United	ICT 09:35	DEN 10:10	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	23%	9%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 4426 Southwest	ICT 19:40	DEN 20:14	33%	11%	0.6%	no record
OO 5240 SkyWest	ICT 17:12	DEN 17:50	34%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 5630 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 18:42	DEN 19:18	39%	14%	0.8%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON